GBP / USD Technical Overview May 16, 2019

GBP / USD was again depressed in the middle of yesterday’s trade. After a brief fight against the New York session, unfortunately, resistance from the British currency did not last long. Ahead of yesterday’s close of trading, GBP / USD was again pressed near the lowest level of the day.

Starting today’s trading session, the GBP / USD movement tends to be flat between Fibonacci 0 and 23.6% levels. In the Asian session, the movement of GBP / USD was generally not too wide. What are the trading predictions today?

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Chart Reading and Prediction

In the D1 timeframe the price is moving down after recording the highest price on last Friday. The trend line for the medium Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch-Osc) appears to decline even though in the long term there is bullish sentiment on this indicator. This is in line with the Moving Average (MA) of the short and medium periods which illustrate the continuing decline in price movements. Prices appear to be stuck in the long period MA as a support line.

The price chart on the H4 timeframe shows the pattern of MA formation named “confirmed downtrend” where the short period MA is already below the long period MA (medium period MA is down). All Stoch-Osc lines are still below the 23.6% level, indicating that the trend is currently quite strong. As far as the Stoch-Osc line is below the level of 23.6%, the downtrend is still considered strong and there is no indication of reversal.

Short-term Stoch-Osc in the H1 timeframe has moved closer to the overbought area, but the long-term stoch-oscards still hold in the lower area. This indicates that there is a possibility of a price correction going up today. The long distance between the two shows that the strength of the price increase is not too high.

Predicted price movements of GBP / USD today move in the range of support and resistance, 1.2803 and 1.2900 respectively. If before the opening of the American market the price has broken the 1.2900 level, there will be a possibility that the price will go up to the level of 1.2960. Conversely, if the price breaks the level of 1.2803 it is likely that the price will continue moving down near the level of 1.2765. We recommend a wait and set buy limit at 1.2765 with a target of 1.2830 and stop loss 1.2725.

Market Participants Seem to be Waiting for Fundamental News

Until this afternoon, the main forex pairs moved very limited. The lack of market driving sentiment is the cause. Market participants seem to be waiting for fundamental news to start entering the trading floor.

Some of the market driving factors awaited by market participants today include the German Preliminary GDP q / q, US Retail Sales m / m, and US Core Retail Sales m / m. Some other data releases awaited include Eurozone Flash GDP q / q, Canadian Consumer Price Index m / m and y / y, and Speech from FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision.

Until the beginning hours of the European session opening, the market moved limited with price ranges ranging from 20-30 pips. The German Preliminary GDP release which is predicted to strengthen is not enough to move the market. Likewise with French final CPI.

As predicted previously, German Preliminari GDP data is released at 0.4% according to consensus. It seems that the market has anticipated this data so that no movement is beyond predictions. In fact, the French Final CPI data released was greater than consensus of 0.3% which was not enough to make the currency market stretched. Compared with the provisional estimates published on April 30, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP were up by 0.1points.

 

Free Forex Signal May 15, 2019

We are providing free forex signal for today’s European-America session. This signal is valid only until the end of US trading session of May 15, 2019.

GBP/USD

Buy Limit 1.2900     |      Target Profit 1.2947    |      Stop Loss 1.2875

USD/JPY

Sell Limit 109.67    |      Target Profit 109.22    |      Stop Loss 109.90

EUR/JPY

Sell Limit 122.91    |      Target Profit 122.43    |      Stop Loss 123.08

GBP/JPY

Sell Limit 141.60    |      Target Profit 141. 10    |      Stop Loss 141.92

EJ Returned to This Week Opening Price Level, Illustrating A Correction in the Yen Pairs

As predicted earlier, the Yen’s increase began to be limited. The market has begun to assume that the prices of currency pairs, especially those related to the Yen, have begun to be overpriced.

Selling sentiment on the EUR-JPY pair was strongly resisted at the start of trading today. After opening in the range of 122.65, the Euro gained momentum and experienced a rise of 78 pips (until this article was revealed).

Correction of the bearish trend is also experienced by the USD-JPY pair. The increase experienced by the USD-JPY pair was recorded at 56pips.

GBP-JPY also experiences conditions that are not much different. The consolidation experienced by the pair since morning has brought a price increase of 81pips.

ej-returned-to-this-week-opening-price-level,-describing-a-correction-in-the-yen-pairs

EJ Trading Plan in US Session

After moving up from the daily support level S1 (122.53), the price of EJ continues to creep up to pass the pivot and R1. The beginning of the US session, EJ is still moving limited in the price range of pivot (123.22) and R2 (123.43). EJ’s strength began to weaken and appeared to try to rise several times to test R2 but fell again.

In the American session, it seems that EJ will again try to climb up and try to break R3 (123.58), but if R3 is impenetrable, it is likely that prices will again fall and form a sideway pattern.

 

The GBP / USD Pair is Unable to Rise Higher due to Winding Process of Brexit (May 8, 2019)

The GBP / USD pair is unable to rise higher because of the tough negotiations related to Brexit. Quoting Bloomberg, Wednesday (8/5), at 6:30 a.m. WIB, GBP / USD was in the range of 1,3008 or fell as much as 0.51%. Analysts see an opportunity for further weakness tomorrow.

We suggest that the protracted Brexit issue that has not been resolved further shows the outlook that Theresa May is threatened to lose her position as Prime Minister of England. After a peak agreement in Brussels which stated that the UK has time to leave the European Union until October 31, 2019, it seems the plan will leave.

“May is considered unable to provide an agreement that can be agreed upon by the opposition party. In the midst of the lack of important data releases that can add high volatility to GBP / USD, it seems that the Brexit issue is still a negative sentiment,” as predicted by our analyst.

Not only that, conditions that helped weaken the pound in the eyes of market participants also came from banks in the UK which would shift their business to other places.

Reuters quted that only six of the 11 of 17 British and global supported the idea of ​​a repeat vote to break the parliamentary impasse in the separation of Britain from the European Union.

Four banks said they opposed the new vote, while one bank said it would remain agnostic on all Brexit scenarios and would allow the ongoing political process.

To prepare for Brexit, the bank has transferred billions of pounds to new EU legal entities and shifted around 2,000 roles from London to new hubs in cities including Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid.

While the condition of the dollar also did not strengthen the market players because of the threat of Trump to increase the import tariff of Chinese products from 10% to 20%.

We project, GBP / USD will continue to fall. It is estimated that tomorrow GBP / USD will move in the range of support 1.2990 – 1.3015 – 1.3040 and resistance range 1.3100 – 1.3120 – 1.3150. We recommend sell on strength.

The EUR / USD Seems to be Still Affected by the German’s IFO

The EUR / USD pair seems to be still affected by the Institute of Economic Research (IFO) German business-confidence-index yesterday which fell to the level of 99.2. This figure is below the market consensus at 99.9 levels.
In Thursday trading market (25/4) at 14.46 ECT, the EUR / USD was observed weakening by 0.19% at the price of 1.1133. The euro weakened to the lowest level since May 2017 against the USD.

IFO data reflects the weakness of this country with the largest country with economic support in Europe. The weakening of the IFO business-confidence-index was below predictions in the poll which predicted a rise to 99.9. The bleak conditions in German business activity are also increasingly emphasized by the index of IFO expectations which fell from 95.6 to 95.2.

This index underscored the negative outlook on the European region’s economy.
Inevitably, market sentiment towards the euro was hit and finally weighed on the currency’s movements in opposition to its main rivals the US dollar. In addition to disappointing German data releases, the euro was also pressured by the US dollar strength that dominated other major pair/currencies.

The dollar index touched the highest level for the past twenty-three months at 98.19 levels. Trade negotiations between the US and China planned to be completed this month also seemed to provide positive sentiment for the US dollar to continue to strengthen.

In daily graphical technical analysis where the xponential moving average indicator (EMA) widens with the course of the exchange rate falling. Then on the vortex idicator (VI) with a broad blue over red condition where the course of the rate has the potential to strengthen.

Furthermore, the true strength indicator (TSI) indicator is in the negative area 13 which indicates the exchange rate is not having enough strength to go down. In general, EUR / USD still has the potential to continue the correction in the next trade.

We recommend selling for the GBP / USD pair as long as the price is below 1.1116. The support level is between 1.1120 – 1.1086 – 1.1001. While resistance is between 1.1206 – 1.1258 – 1.1344.

Feeling Trading, Trade Your Feeling, Feel Your Profit

Starting today I will upload articles about predictions of currency movements. Each article contains predictions based on technical readings of certain currencies. Each article will be included in the “Feeling Trading” series.

Maybe people will ask a lot, why am I trading based on a feeling? Previously I need to emphasize here that what I say with feeling trading is actually not really doing currency buying/selling transactions based solely on feeling. Instead, I use several technical indicators to analyze and make decisions.

What indicators do I use to analyze currency movements before I trade? The first and foremost is the stochastic oscillator. I am a big fan of the stochastic indicator, the indicator found by Dr. George Lane in the late of 1950s. This indicator, in my opinion, is a very reliable indicator and can be used to determine the limit of price movements in a trend. In fact, with a few proper modifications, this indicator can be used to determine entry and exit positions in both short, medium and long trends.

The second indicator that I use is the Moving Average. Indeed, this indicator should be the first indicator that must be added to my list. This indicator can show us the current trend. For traders who like to follow the trend, this indicator is very useful. However, because it is always late in following price movements, I put this indicator in the second number on my list. I use this indicator solely to see what the trend is happening now. However, as a retail trader with not too large equity, the best for us is not to fight the current trend.

The third indicator that I have never left in each of my trades is Fibonacci Retracement. After the Stochastic Oscillator, this is my number two favorite indicator. I get many benefits when determining which price points I should use as an entry position and profit target. (Note: I never use Stop Loss. Sounds absurd, yes to some traders? But next time I will explain why I don’t like using SL). Fibonacci retracement is known for its effectiveness in determining price support and resistance levels on a trend.

The last indicator I use is the Camarilla Pivot and Support / Resistance. This indicator is a cost indicator that is not a default indicator — which is included with the MetaTrader installation. This indicator is just an additional indicator. I added this indicator after some time using (only) three other indicators that I explained earlier. Camarilla Pivot (I call it so to shorten), I only use it to recognize extreme support and resistance levels which are sometimes difficult to estimate by using a Fibonacci retracement – especially when prices move very wide and exceed the daily range of the currency.

In the end, this is actually not merely trading with feeling like gambling. Conversely, this is technical trading which is also not merely technical as a robot. This is technical trading that uses certain considerations so that any indications that are read on the graph do not necessarily translate raw.

How is the performance? So far so good in my opinion. With an income of no less than 2% every day, it feels enough to support me and my family. Greetings!

EUR-JPY is Facing Correction Stage, Waiting for Next Signal of Buying Stance

EUR-JPY, in general, has entered a mature trend area, even for certain times it is already in an overbought condition. The short-term trend is bullish. It can be said that the conditions for holding back buy must be taken seriously.

But don’t rush to sell. See also analysis for longer-term trends. For your information, the medium-term trend is neutral, according to our internal technical team. Even though it seems that the stochastic is over-bought, the MACI is over-bought, please remember that the area above level 80 means a strong bullish trend as well.

We see that consolidation conditions are taking place. This means that there may be a correction, but we see that the corrections that occur are limited. Short-term players may be interested in releasing some of their positions as profit-taking actions. You can also buy short to quote a few pips, but we tend to think that the trend will still rise again.

The conclusion we can take, we will still hold long positions for a few moments and see if there will be another resistance break-out. Since the breakout of 122.75, the EUR-JPY currency pair was evolving in a relatively neutral short-term trend, but the recent rise in the Euro currency pairs has allowed the currency pair to reach the target of the medium-term trend that has become bullish recently. In the case of a break-up, the trend and turnaround could be confirmed.

Our suggestion is to watch if the RSI line can break 70 level line trough from above. If it doesn’t so, then buying stance is confirmed. Remember as well that Stoch-osc sometimes stays above 80 level for several days meaning that strong bullish condition is taking place.

Resistance: 127.54
Next resistance: 136.00

Gold is Signaling Buy (wait on Short Sell) in Uptrend Market

Our analysis of the 4H Gold chart shows that there is still a chance of an expanding long term trend (uptrend). Despite of that possibility, in the short term it appears that there is a tendency for prices to fall.

A reading of the Stochastic Oscillator marker demonstrates a decent quality among purchase and sell. Stoch-Os is starting to rise again in the lower part of the indicator windows. The same thing is indicated by the RSI indicator. The line is touching the lower level and make a move above. This is also confirmed by the MACD indicator which indicates that the signal is still in neutral condition. Even the histogram is still below the zero level, it is not quite far from the level and remember that the leght of the histogram is shorter from some periods before.

In our conclusion, overall Gold is trending up, and the previous breakout of 1261.80 has been confirmed as this level is now support. Despite a new high point of short-term trend, the return of the ounce of gold on this support sends a possible neutralization of the global trend. However, a bearish break in this support could signal a downward trend.

buy-gold-14-jun-2017

Gold expected to rise after short fallThis is a kind of tricky situation when thader should always aware. Our advice for trading Gold, traders should be cautious about the limited decline in gold prices. Given the possibility of a trend price increase, we recommend a TP that is not too large. Open buy position when it start to rise near the support level.

Support: $ 1261.80

Next support: $ 1246

Tight Range Due to the Lack of High-impact Sentiment

Friday is regarded by currency traders as the reversal day. It is often that market gone to sideways on on Friday. Quite a lot of events on the trading floor happened today (24/3), but few are expected to have a significant impact on prices. We will not see much movement in the market due to the lack of high-impact sentiment. For traders with character scalper, this would be a distinct advantage. Conversely, for the “news trader” this day is a day when they are virtually deserted. See all events happened today in the figure below. And the trading signal will follow in the next section.

Free Forex Signal
For traders who need it, I gave the signal for free to you (the effective trading time on Monday (3/24/2017) at 09.00 until Tuesday (7/25/2017) morning at 03.00 GMT + 7):

GBP/USD
Buy Stop : 1.2524
Sell Stop : 1.2475
EUR/USD
Buy Stop : 1.0792
Sell Stop : 1.0761
AUD/USD
Buy Stop : 0.7653
Sell Stop : 0.7621
USD/CHF
Buy Stop : 0.9960
Sell Stop : 0.9926

 

UPDATE 12:00 pm: The movement of GBP / USD at 1-hour chart is seen to be in a correction phase. The scenario is if the area around 1.24637 – 1.24890 confirms a buy signal is found, then it can open up the possibility of GBP / USD moved up to the range of 1.25047 – 1.25300. Be careful if it turns GBP / USD manages to break support at 1.24637 because it could potentially push the GBP / USD dropped to the range of 1.24480 – 1.24227.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance, February 2017

New Zealand’s Trade Balance, February 2017

Thursday (March 23, 2017) The market floor is quite busy today. There are many events that happened today which gives a considerable impact to the market. Some news events are worth waiting for, among others, the Official Cash Rate (NZD), RBNZ Rate Statement (NZD), Retail Sales m / m (GBP), Unemployment Claims (USD), Fed Chair Yellen Speaks (USD).

Above news release is considered a factor driving the market is quite strong. In addition to such news, some news that should be considered is the MPC Member Broadbent Speaks (GBP), Long Term Refinancing Operation (EUR), New Home Sales (USD) Speaks FOMC Member Kashkari (USD).

This country relies on the results of agricultural products and processed food for export, while its imports are limited to energy, machinery, textiles and plastics. The NZ main trading partners are Australia, China, US, European and Japan. The income from the results of international trade is very important for the economy of New Zealand.

This indicator measures the amount of the total value of imports minus exports in a period of one month compared to the similar period in the previous year (year over year or y / y). On the off chance that all out fares volume is more prominent than all out imports esteem, the exchange balance has an excess, and the other way around on the off chance that the estimation of all out imports is more prominent than fares, at that point exchange encounters a shortfall. An exchange surplus will expand the interest for the NZD money.

New Zealand’s trade in January again experienced a deficit of NZD 284.72 million (y / y), far lower than the forecast that the deficit of NZD 3.00 million and also lower than December’s deficit of NZD 36.22 million. In January 2017 y / y exports rose 0.3% to NZD 3.91 billion due to increased sales of dairy and butter products, while imports y / y rose 8.0% to NZD 4.19 billion.

For February 2017, it is estimated that New Zealand’s trade will be a surplus of NZD 160.00 million. A higher than expected surplus number will tend to cause NZD to strengthen.

 

GBP/USD

Buy Stop : 1.2491

Sell Stop : 1.2466

 

EUR/USD

Buy Stop : 1.0803

Sell Stop : 1.0775

 

AUD/USD

Buy Stop : 0.7686

Sell Stop : 0.7650

 

USD/CHF

Buy Stop : 0.9940

Sell Stop : 0.9908